2023-02-01
- And so begins another search for housing in New York City. And with it comes the requisite parade of cognitive biases. The one that jumps off the page these days is “the contrast effect”: when people compare two things they tend to enlarge the perceived differences between those things. To make this concrete, this is the cognitive bias that comes into play when you look at one place with 1000 sq ft of space and another with 1010 sq ft of space and wonder “but can I be happy in the smaller apartment?” Of course, some differences really do matter, and that’s the rub of the situation. 400 sq ft vs 1000 sq ft will likely have a big impact on how you live. But assigning appropriate weight to the differences can quickly fall apart as you spend more time analyzing a place. The longer you look, the bigger any given difference seems. In the brief period that Elena and I have been looking at places, I’ve already noticed many times where I find myself wondering “but can I be happy if
I have an apartment that is 80% as good in this dimension as the other?” And I completely forget that I’m happy right now in an apartment that is 40% as good as either in that dimension! It’s pretty jarring to realize “oh wow, I’m assigning at least one order of magnitude more importance to this variable than it should have.” And yet, this happens reliably every time I engage seriously with this problem. Brains, man, they are wild.
I had a great idea. Renters need a site that informs them of the actual “state of the rental market.” This can be provided from public data. This is something people will absolutely pay for. Plus you can layer on top helping with negotiations.
Wielding cognitive biases as a weapon in rent negotiations. Asking rent 5k? I’m putting in 4532. Anchoring. Specific numbers seem more thought out.
Alon Sheetrit message
- Hi Mr. Sheetrit,
- I am writing as a prospective tenant for 222 Riverside Dr. #10D. My girlfriend and I are looking for a new apartment and saw a listing for #10D online. I looked up the owner information for the building and am taking a guess based on LinkedIn information that this is your email.
- I visited the unit on Sunday and wanted to make an offer. Unfortunately, the broker has refused to forward the offer to you because I did not want to pay his fee. So, I’m trying to get it to you myself. I figure we can come to an agreement without the broker that is better for both of us. Frankly, the broker has provided very little value so far, both during and after the tour.
- So, what is the offer? The unit is listed for $4,800 / month online. The broker fee means any tenant will actually pay a net rent of almost $5,300. If I can avoid a large broker fee, I can pay you more per month for the unit. I can offer $5,000 / month for a 12 month lease. I’d like to start the lease on Mar 1, 2023. If possible, I’d also like the lease to include an option to extend for another 6 months at $5,200 / month. I’ve included some info about timelines for me and my girlfriend below, but it’s worth noting that we are likely to vacate after 18-24 months to start a family outside the city.
- For some personal background, the tenants would be myself and my girlfriend. We are both in our early 30s and work in tech. I’m a Software Engineer. I’ve been working at Dropbox for the past 3 years and before that at a startup in San Francisco for 5 years. I also have served in the National Guard for the past 11 years, doing one tour overseas in 2018. My girlfriend is a Product Manager. She’s been a PM for 3 years now. She is starting a new role at a fintech startup called Narmi this month. She’s never done anything in the military, which I think is the right call for her. Personality-wise, we are quiet and respectful people. We are more of a “dinner party with 6 friends” kind of couple vs “massive party with the whole neighborhood” kind of couple. We will be joined in the apartment by a furry friend. Jofi is a very friendly and small dog. He’s a 20 lb poodle mix and loves to make friends and explore Riverside Park. We currently live on the Upper West Side, 108th and Broadway, so
he has lots of experience with the northern part of the park. We’d love to stay in this neighborhood for years, but realistically, we want to start a family in the next 2-ish years, so that’s are timeline for how long we’d like to stay in our next apartment. The city has been great, but other places feel like a better fit for the next phase of our lives. We have parents on Long Island and in Seattle, so those are the most likely next stop after our city adventure comes to a close. We’d love to spend the last couple years in #10D, hopefully this can all work out.
- If all this sounds good to you, I’d be happy to provide you with additional documents substantiating my and my girlfriend’s employment and financial stability along with references for you to check about our past rental history. If that all checks out, we would also be happy to move quickly and sign a lease as soon as today on these terms, if that is of interest to you. If you want to change the terms in whatever way, we are happy to explore alternatives as well.
- Thanks,
- Will Clausen
- 206-271-1510
Date
February 1, 2023